Tasar Silkworm Disease Calendar 2026 (Ranchi)
Round-the-year Virosis & Bacteriosis risk from a machine-learning (Random Forest) model
Custom Day Risk Calculator
Enter any weather values — the trained Random Forest model runs in your browser and returns the disease probability.
THI (NRC 1971): -
Suggestions
Machine-Learning Model
Random Forest classifiers (100 trees) trained on CTRTI Ranchi 2025–2026 field records. Inputs are weather only: Tmax, Tmin, Humidity, THI (NRC 1971) and Wind Speed.
| Disease | Training days (positive) | Test accuracy | 2026 hold-out accuracy | Top features |
|---|
How colours are assigned
- The model predicts a disease probability for every day of 5 years of NASA POWER climate for Ranchi.
- Probabilities are averaged for each calendar date across years and smoothed with a 7-day window.
- Days are ranked within the year: bottom 40% Low, 40–70% Moderate, 70–90% High, top 10% Very High. The calculator uses the same probability cut-offs: .
Terms & Conditions
Disease incidence is subject to rearing season, crop stage, and management practices. This calendar indicates climate-based risk only and should be used as a decision-support tool, not a definitive forecast.
About this calendar
Each cell is one day of a typical year. The colour shows the disease probability predicted by the Random Forest model, ranked across the year.
Inputs: daily maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, THI and wind speed.
Limitations: the model was trained on a small dataset (116 days) collected mainly during the rearing season, so risk levels are relative (which parts of the year look most disease-favourable), not absolute outbreak probabilities.